It could hardly be worse.

Ahh, you might want to take a better look at the chart. It includes May...were only 1 week into the month. A, B, & C have leveled off in the past & continued upward in the following months. These are very small sample sizes. It doesn't take many lates to make the % soar. D, E, & HRs are continuing to climb the mountain with no indication of "leveling off."

I'm not sure what you find encouraging about this. Spend a few minutes and take another hard look....

I built an excel worksheet to show chart/graphs.

I can do any formulation in the performance data in about 10 minutes, so if anyone would like to see something specific, let me know.

I've done a chart for Apr2006-current showing all credit grades late loans for 0 current DQs.

Can someone tell me how to paste images to forum threads?

Click "add reply"

Click "IMG"

Enter URL

poofiez

Nevermind ;)

bal.

If the chart is in .jpg format, then upload it to photobucket.com and copy the image into the desired thread. If it's not yet in .jpg format, copy the chart into paint and save it as a .jpg file, then upload, etc. Hey, I just learned how to do this today, so I might as well help. B)

Thanks!!

I've created the following wiki page that shows lates by credit grade: http://prospers.org/wiki/Data/LatesByMonth

You can see the months that are included: March-December 2006.

Note that most of the graphs are pretty noisy since sample sizes of loans are quite low. I have created some more monthly pages like the ones I posted earlier in this thread but I haven't had time to finish them yet.

Good grief. Its one thing to know HRs are a bad risk and its another to see it.

Somebody refresh my memory, what happened in April 2006? Was that the wild west days, when we'd fund anything with a pulse? Apparently lots of them lack pulses now.

To everyone who has contributed to this long thread, especially those of you who tirelessly crunch the numbers for the rest of us to gag/look over, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, and, by the way, just in case I forgot to say it: Thank you! I've only been in Prosper for a month now, and my 10 loans are only in the AA-C ranges but I've looked into the abyss of some of the lowers, and bid on one, but no more. Going through all the replies in this thread and painfully watching the "March of the 45-degree Lines" movie in high-speed, Ds and below effectively don't exist for me any more.

This thread also confirms to me why I've been leery of using standing orders. Eyeballs on the applicant's information are more useful than an automated filter / bidder.

I've created a few more pages with late data by month and grade. They are linked to the bottom of this page: http://prospers.org/wiki/Data

The lending community is already taking care of that

I am seeing fewer and fewer HRs fund each week.... literally you can see it slowing down...

I also agree with your theory

Although I think pninen's charts will look just as bad in 1 year as they do now because bad loans continue to get funded... so my belief is the aggregrate will look terrible ... but this is why we need granularity like golfingluigi just provided

In B, C, and hopefully D you will see flattening (of course AA and As)

No hope for HR, and Es aren't looking so great either...

thank you sir

I think showing these quarterly for Q2 2006 and Q3 2006 will be a positive

The sample size will be larger and no single loan will effect a grade too hard.

I will be watching these 2 charts in earnest the next 12-18 months. I am hoping for more flat lining in grades D through AA. The Q3 2006 is still too young to really analyze....

but having the monthly data is also interesting to see if any weird effects happened in certain months...

Q2 06 loans originated: 1255

Q3 06 loans originated: 1937 (35% growth over previous Q)

Q4 06 loans originated: 2408 (24% growth over previous Q)

Anyhow, the sampling size of Q3 06 should provide even more chance of eliminating any statistical outliers. Should be a good chart to look at in about 3 months....

Growth in HR loans in 1Q 07 was almost the same as 4Q 06, while the number of E loans actually declined. It will be interesting to see what 2Q 07 shows at the end of June.

(IMG:http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa45/golfingluigi/LoansbyQtrbyCR.jpg)

very interesting

Just peeked at Q1 2007: 3082 loans (28% growth over previous Q)

If this is true and your chart is true, then most of the growth is occuring in D and above

Which helps Prosper's profit margins (and probably mine as well!)

mini help pls

If I just want to take a 'photo' of a small piece of a larger excel spreadsheet, to post to the forums, how do I "select" just that piece to be the "picture"? :unsure:

(IMG:http://i182.photobucket.com/albums/x263/thisguy73/Saved.jpg)

well if nothing else comes of it, I've learned how to draw pictures and post them to forums due to my Prosper experience

Anyhow, what this chart shows is Es and HRs as a % of all loans for the past year, quarter by quarter

I dont think we have necessarily turned the corner ... as HRs and Es are returning to levels they enjoyed (as a % of all loans) in Q2 and Q3 2006. I don't know what happened here in Q4 2006 but there appeared to be an orgy of irrational exuberance :blink:

I believe someone posted the results of an academic study somewhere in these forms that predicted that: higher grade loans tend to go bad at the beginning; lower grade loans go bad at a constant rate. This probably has something to do with the way people achieve a lower credit grade.

Isn't that because Prosper redefined E & HR about that time, so that fewer individuals fall into each of those categories (some former Es are now HRs, and some former HRs are now ineligible)? That also means the old data on Es and HRs doesn't reflect today's Es and HRs, since the same terms are being used for people with different credit scores. (Not that I expect them to become much better.)

I think it finally clicked this morning why Prosper doesn't support having a secondary market. Since the percentage of late loans is so high, the secondary market would likely be flooded with people trying to get out of bad loans. This would depress the value of the loan shares driving up, of course, the effective interest rate. Anyone coming on to Prosper and seeing new loans going for 10-20% and a rather vibrant secondary market with loan shares going for a guessed-at 50-100% is going to get the message loud and clear that there are a lot of problem loans.

Of course, on the flip side, if people don't get the message, new high-risk-taking lenders might go to the secondary market which will drive up the new loans' interest rates - and possibly beyond what the borrowers are willing to pay and/or the state interest rate caps. This, too, would end the prosper gravy-train.

I'm still trying to get over Prosper's much quoted 0.5% default statistic :lol:

The only way I can continue to trust ------- is to assume the media is quoting stories quoting CL from a year ago.

But after seeing ------- alter screenshots to support misleading claims in their ads, I'm not sure I trust -------.

What are you complaining about? Appears u have no lates. Looks like it may be working for you so far. What were u expecting, to get paid more than your bidding?

:blink:

B

Your portfolio too appears quite good, why would you bash default stats when you are beating them. Makes u look ridiculous to me.

B

I am not complaining. I am just watching very carefully. Want the stats to see if the new added information really is making a difference in the portfolios. Last year was terrible, I just hope lessons were learned.

Be Pro$perou$
Ms. Ava

There's more to the picture than one lender.

Do you have before and after pictures somewhere? If so, I'd like to see them.

The after picture is the 5th post in this link:

http://forums.prosper.com/index.php?showtopic=25057

average loan age of 34.1 days.

average loan age of 33.7 days.

why do you care if other people are worried about future default rates?

my mother used to say to me, "jolla, worry about jolla." oh wait, that was jolla's mother, but you get the point.

Now that I have a borrower who has the money in the bank but can't seem to get a
payment to take after 9 successful payments, I wonder how many others there are
out there.

Its quite good because I am going through my first cycle of payments

lol

if its like this in 6 or 9 months then I will agree with you

until then I cannot make any determination.

but the statistics are the statistics so we can discuss them all day as its the average prosper experience...

The 5/15/07 update...
(IMG:http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-6/1187065/prosperlate-2007-05-15.gif)

Way to go, team!

Good to see that the lads are all still out there doing their best to keep that trajectory rising.

(I get very confused, though, about how this could be, since the default rate on Prosper is only 0.5%. Which we know to be the case, since that is the figure they announce.)

I;m worried about may and jul 06 - they seem to be not going in a 45 degree angle

March 06, flatline? GASP

Hopefully the next update will fix that anomoly

Cheer cheer, the charts never change

I stick to the belief these charts will look identical in 12 months and 24 months from now.

Hi Pninen, These graphs are amazing. Is it too much trouble for you to make separate graphs by credit grade so we can see how lates compare with experian and get passed any noise for changing credit grade (like when lender flee to higher quality)? Thank you for taking the time to make this one for us! -- Katie

See the graphs linked to the bottom of this wiki page.

There is actually quite a bit of curvature to the March and Apr 07 loans - for an unscientific measure, try holding a straightedge to the screen. Of course, it could be like Jan 07, but I am excited to see the first March dot. Cutting of the lower end of HR has to have some effect, and it looks as though March may show that as we go forward.

Looking at this graph is almost like looking at a Rorschach test. It does seem that the oldest loans are flattening out around the 20%- 22% mark. Perhaps we've found the ceiling?

Everytime I see these charts ... I have an urge to grab a bottle of BrilCream and a stiff hairbrush ...

Thanks again for the updates ...

Sure is an optimistic outlook for a single data point for March 07. The March 07 point does not look that much different than the March 06 point though. ;)

It is obvious though that Prosper removing the lowest credit ratings will have a positive influence on the curve. On the ROI side it may not help much. Lenders can continue to offer overly low rates to the remaining borrowers. <_<

I'm new to prosper - I have a few bids out but none funded yet. I want to thank everyone who has participated in the thread as I find it highly valuable.

I take it that we are able to download this data from somewhere and set up database queries? (I'm a market analyst and am used to working in Access, so the slicing/dicing is of interest if data is available with sufficient granularity.)

I was looking at links from lending stats and noticed that loans are broken out into categories including "lates", "defaulted" and "repurchesed". I'm assuming the defaulted means it's dead and you don't won't get any more money back. Does anyone know what the "repurchased" loans are?

Just to throw something maybe beneficial into the conversation

Here are some stats I pulled off the lendingstats.com site for
loan age >9 mo
loan amount $5001-$25000
0-20 DTI

EDIT - SORRY I COULDN'T GET THE TABLES TO POST RIGHT, HAD TO UPLOAD IMAGE TO PHOTOBUCKET (IS THERE A WAY TO FORCE TABLES?)

(IMG:http://i154.photobucket.com/albums/s268/fartheststar/loans.jpg)


What I find interesting is that the loans with higher DTI figures seem to have higher interest rates and lower (%late+%defaults) than the lower DTI figures which runs fully contrary to my expectations. Granted the loan counts are small in the samples, but it seems odd, but perhaps an opportunity for folks here.

Note this does not seem to hold for loan amounts from 0-5000. (again above is just for loan amounts $5001+)

fartheststar, here's info on downloading: https://www.prosper.com/tools/

fartheststar,

The theory is that higher DTI have lower default rates is that higher DTI loans are funded more selectively than lower DTI loans which makes them higher quality. However, if you start funding high DTI loans just because they are high DTI IMO you will end up on the short end of the stick.

"Repurchased" loans are defaulted loans where Prosper reimbursed the lenders for the full amount of their lost principal (at 0.00% interest).

Prosper policy is to repurchase loans which resulted from identity theft. There appear to be other, unacknowledged, circumstances where loan irregularities will also result in repurchase.

thanks all for the information. appreciated.

There was also a large group of repurchased loans back around August of last year because certain Scorex data was misreported (the information on DQs in the last 7 years was off by a large margin, and Prosper offered all affected borrowers a chance to reneg on their portions of the loan).

Does anyone think that the mar-06 loans have finally hit the curve? Do you tihink it will flatten out, or will it be a repeat of the 14% mark? It really is starting to look more curvy... I think... :(